NBA BUBBLE PREDICTIONS PART 2
by CONNOR KIRST
Welcome to part 2 in my series of scenarios for the remainder of the NBA season and postseason. Today we are tackling our 2nd tier of teams: fringe championship contenders: the Raptors, Celtics, Rockets, and 76ers. These teams are all just on the cusp of being true contenders. While they could win a championship, I think it's fair to say any of these teams would be a surprise.
Missed part 1? Check it out here!
Toronto Raptors (46-18, 2nd in the Eastern Conference)
The Raptors surprised a lot of people last season by winning their 1st ever NBA Championship. What they've done this season is almost more impressive. For most teams, losing a player like Kawhi Leonard would be a death blow. The Raptors have barely missed a beat despite losing one of the league's top 5 players. Pascal Siakam, Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Serge Ibaka, OG Anunoby, and Norman Powell have all taken a step up this season. Siakam in particular is a borderline All-NBA talent now. Masai Ujiri has done an incredible job of building a cohesive unit that has players who can step up and perform in any role no matter what the circumstance is.
The Raptors have dealt with a lot of injuries this season. Normally that is not a good indicator for a team, for the Raptors it has shown off their depth and a keen eye for talented players. The Raptors are not a team of traditional "blue chip" draft picks. 3 big contributors are undrafted: VanVleet, Terence Davis, and Chris Boucher, and many are just solid veterans picked up through trade: Lowry, Ibaka and Marc Gasol. Coach Nick Nurse is masterful at putting his players in the best situation night in night out and is a master strategist. This will help them compete with almost any team.
What will likely be the downfall for this team in repeating their title, is that they don't have a true superstar. I would argue that there is not another team that plays better together than the Raptors, but eventually, superior talent tends to win out in the NBA. I wouldn't rule out them getting an upset or 2 but I think their ceiling would be winning the Eastern Conference Finals.
BEST CASE: FALLING JUST SHORT IN THE FINALS
MOST REALISTIC CASE: LOSING IN THE EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
WORST CASE: INJURIES CATCH UP EARLY EXIT
Boston Celtics (43-21, 3rd in the East)
The Celtics may have lost Kyrie Irving in the offseason, but I would think Celtics fans are already much happier with Kemba Walker. Irving's ball-stopping seemed to hinder the growth of F Jayson Tatum and Wing Jaylen Brown last season. Both Tatum and Brown join Walker as 20 PPG scorers this season. Tatum looks like a different player this year. He was extremely promising in his rookie year but took a step back in efficiency last season. This year Tatum really put it all together, averaging 30.7 PPG in February. If he can continue to score like that, the Celtics could be a tough out.
Brad Stevens is one of the better coaches in the NBA and has done a very good job getting the most out of this young team. With the most common starting line-up consisting of Walker, Marcus Smart, Brown, Tatum, and Daniel Theis, this team has exceeding expectations by being the number 2 ranked defense by opponents PPG. Smart is a dog on the defensive end and can lock up any PG or wing, even some bigs. Brown is no slouch either. What could be a problem for the Celtics is if they have to face Joel Embiid and the Sixers. This is a solid player on defense but asking him to guard Embiid for a 7 game series may be too big of a task. Enes Kanter is a big body and is good on offense and on the boards, but is well known as a defensive liability. Kanter may actually get the start vs. Embiid due to his size. The Sixers don't really have a great pick and roll game in my opinion since Ben Simmons will not shoot, so Kanter could hold up if they give him help.
Other than concerns with the Sixers matchup, the Celtics should actually fair pretty well in the East. They lost 4-1 to the Bucks in the Eastern Conference Semifinals last year, I still think it is fair to say they are a better team this year. Just like the Raptors, I see the Celtics falling just short. If Tatum takes yet another step up, this could be a team to watch, however.
BEST CASE: LOSE IN THE FINALS
MOST REALISTIC: ECF LOSS
WORST CASE: A MATCHUP WITH PHILLY
Houston Rockets (40-24, 6th in the West)
Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey is carrying out a very interesting experiment this season: fielding a rotation with no player over 6'7". I don't think we've seen this since George Mikan shot hook shot after hook shot over plumbers, milkmen, and electricians in the 1950s. It's an interesting strategy, and one that I think might just be crazy enough to work (wow is Daryl Morey just Nathan Fielder in this situation?). I know the Rockets have been playoff underachievers in the James Harden era, but they made it tough for the Warriors last year in Western Conference Semifinals. I remember watching that lineup of Harden, Chris Paul, Eric Gordon, Austin Rivers, and PJ Tucker, and honestly, that really worked well for them. They are fully committed to that strategy now so I am excited to see if they can have more success.
This year Harden is joined by another very polarizing superstar: Russell Westbrook. Say what you will about Russ, but he will provide value to this team in the playoff just by staying healthy. CP3 is a great player and an all-timer, but his fit next to Harden was always questionable and he dealt with a ton of little injuries piling up. Westbrook is also admittedly a questionable fit next to Harden, but will at least consistently draw some attention away from 'The Beard'. Westbrook quietly has had his best season since his MVP year, averaging over 30 PPG in both January and February.
Other than having the most gifted pure scorer in the NBA and a triple-double chaser, the Rockets are surrounded by just solid role players. Robert Covington is a top-flight defensive player and a good 3pt shooter, PJ Tucker is strong, competes with much bigger players effectively and can also keep you honest from 3pt land. Eric Gordon hasn't played much this year but is still a solid piece. The rest of the rotation looks to be guys like Danuel House, Austin Rivers, and Ben McLemore - all fine players just not ones to expect a ton from.
This may be one of the last years Harden can truly compete for a title in Houston. There have been better Rockets teams in the past, but 2020 has been crazy, to say the least, maybe Houston can sneak one this year.
BEST CASE: SUPRISE FINALS APPEARANCE - ULTIMATELY LOSING
MOST REALISTIC: 2ND ROUND EXIT
WORST: SMALL BALL FAILS, 1ST ROUND EXIT
Philadelphia 76ers (39-26, 6th in the East)
It's been a strange year for the Philadelphia 76ers. We are now in year 3 of the Joel Embiid/Ben Simmons era, and just about everyone has a differing take about it. On paper: Simmons, Josh Richardson, Tobias Harris, Al Horford, and Embiid, should be an insane starting lineup. Unfortunately, the Sixers have looked like just another middle-seeded Eastern Conference playoff team. This team has problems. They also have maybe the best pure talent in the East.
Let's talk about Ben Simmons. He's a fantastic defender, a gazelle in the open floor, tall enough to see over defenders and make even the craziest passes. He should be Magic Johnson 2.0. Ben Simmons hasn't shown the competitive drive and the ability to step up when the moment may seem too big that made Magic Johnson the greatest PG we've seen. Ben Simmons should not be the 76ers PG in my opinion. Have him handle on the break and obviously do some playmaking, but it seems downright idiotic not to have Ben Simmons play more like a PF in the halfcourt. Simmons is either afraid or unable to shoot and it has been affecting this team for 3 seasons now. I would love to see the Sixers use him as the roll man on the pick and roll more often, but then spacing with Embiid might become clogged. This is something that should be easy to fix either by HC Brett Brown or Simmons himself. They either need to split up Embiid and Simmons minutes, or Simmons will just have to at least attempt 3pt shots. Right now Ben Simmons is playing like a younger Giannis before he truly broke out. That's fine, that still makes him a borderline All-Star for most of his career. It's just very frustrating because I can see so much more potential there. Ben, if you read this I'm sorry, you really are great on defense and in transition.
Now that I've gotten that out of the way, I could see the Sixers maybe winning some games here. Good starting 5, and I like both Mattisse Thybulle and Shake Milton off the bench as solid, young role players. Embiid can be the most physically dominant player when he wants to be and when he's healthy. While I am holding out some hope for this team to improve in the playoffs this year, they do have quite a bit of work to do.
BEST CASE: LOSING IN THE FINALS
MOST REALISTIC: 2ND ROUND DEPARTURE
WORST CASE: SIMMONS AND EMBIID CONTINUE TO SHY AWAY FROM THE MOMENT 1ST ROUND EXIT
Click here for part 3!
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