Denver Nuggets (43-22, 3rd in the West)
The Denver Nuggets have shown a couple flashes over the past few seasons. The arrival and ascendance of star C Nikola Jokic has transformed this team in a few short years. Jokic is posting nearly identical numbers as last year (20.2 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 6.9 APG). While Jokic is often the butt of jokes due to his unusual (for an NBA player) Pillsbury Doughboy figure, he has arrived in Orlando looking noticeably slimmer, I would love to know his secret for leaving quarantine in better shape, but slim Jokic is a scary thought. Even with concerns about his conditioning, Jokic has shown off some serious toughness - setting the NBA playoff record with 65 minutes played in an OT game vs. Portland last year. While they did end up losing that game and the series, getting playoff experience is extremely important for a young team like Denver.
Beyond Jokic, the Nuggets have a pretty solid roster. Jamal Murray doesn't always play consistently every night, but when the shot is falling for him, he's a really good sidekick. Jokic's playmaking ability is absolutely insane for a man of his size and allows Murray to play a more secondary playmaking role. Murray does bring value as a shot-creator and can provide spacing around Jokic (34.5% from 3 this year - not great but keeps defenses honest).
The rest of the team is mostly the same from last year. I didn't really care for the Malik Beasley trade but it did free up playing time for Denver's newest wrinkle - Michael Porter Jr. MPJ has missed pretty much 2 years of college and NBA basketball but was impressive in limited minutes this season. Denver is cautious with Porter and he's almost exclusively come off the bench but this guy has some serious potential. In January, MPJ put up 12.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG, and 1.3 APG on shooting splits of 52.2% and 48% from 3. Sure it's only 15 game stretch in just over 20 minutes a game, but there is reason to be excited for Porter. He's a very athletic and skilled player who is comfortable at either forward spot - too quick for most bigs to guard, too big for most wings. This is exactly the type of player that teams would kill for in today's NBA.
Rounding out the rest of the lineup, the Nuggets have a solid veteran core of Gary Harris, Will Barton, Paul Millsap, Jerami Grant, and Torrey Craig. While Harris has had better offensive seasons and Craig is almost exclusively a defensive specialist, all of these guys can contribute a role on both ends of the court. Monte Morris is also a solid young PG off the bench who can create for himself and others.
I don't quite see the Nuggets being quite ready to win the West, but they are not that far off. If Jokic really is in tip-top shape and if we see Jamal Murray gain some more consistency, this team could pull off some upsets in the playoffs.
BEST CASE: WCF APPEARANCE
MOST REALISTIC: 2ND ROUND EXIT
WORST: LOSING TO A MORE EXPERIENCED TEAM IN THE 2ST ROUND (ROCKETS?)
Miami Heat (41-24, 4th in the East)
I think it's fair to say that betting against Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra is not smart. Riley has constructed a competitive Heat team nearly every season since he took over. Sure having guys like Dwyane Wade, Shaquille O'Neal, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh help, but few executives have been able to consistently field a great team like Riley. Since LeBron left, the Heat have pretty much stockpiled good young players. Riley has flipped wings Josh Richardson into Jimmy Butler, and Justise Winslow into Andre Igoudala and Jae Crowder. I (probably irrationally ) really like Winslow, but getting a player like Iggy shows that this team believes they can win a championship this year.
Jimmy Butler is one of the more tenacious personalities in the NBA. While that has sometimes backfired on him, Butler seems to have found a more permanent home in Miami. Butler has taken on more of a primary ball-handler role than what we've seen in the past and has played very well (20.2 PPG, career highs in rebound and assist average- 6.6 and 6.1 respectively). While his 3pt shooting has taken a sizable dip, Butler has thrived as the main man for their pick and roll. Jimmy played well particularly in the playoffs last year in Philly. He's a better fit in Miami just because of their structure.
Bam Adebayo makes for a great secondary star on this team and has really taken a leap this year. Bam is averaging career highs almost across the board and excels at the pick and roll, rim protection, rebounding, and is a surprisingly good passer (5.1 APG). Pair those 2 with good youngsters - Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, and Kendrick Nunn - and that's a deep and versatile team. Adding Iggy and Crowder gives them good leadership too. Let's not forget Goran Dragic and Udonis Haslem (he's gotta be more of an unofficial coach now right?) are still here.
I like this Heat team a lot. I think Spoelstra is a really good coach, who knows how to manage and change rotations as needed. He's not afraid to step outside of the box (like starting Justise Winslow at PG during a stretch last year), and I think they could turn some heads. If the rumors of Giannis Antetkounmpo having an interest in joining this squad in South Beach next year, Miami is a team to watch. For this season I would think the ECF is the ceiling.
BEST CASE: ECF APPEARANCE
MOST REALISTIC: BEING JUST SHORT OF BOS, PHI, TOR or MIL
WORST: UPSET BY A TEAM LIKE IND IN ROUND 1 (the current 5 seed)
Oklahoma City Thunder (40-24, 5th in the West)
Just when it seems like you should start feeling bad for the Thunder, they turn in a good season out of nowhere. KD and James Harden are long gone, Russ and Paul George getting traded this offseason was surprising. OKC's top duo of Chris Paul and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has outperformed maybe even the Thunder's expectations. CP3 looks like he did before his Houston days and fits much better next to SGA than he ever did James Harden. Shai was good as a rookie in LA, he has taken a huge step up this year (19.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 3.3 APG on 47/35 shooting). Both players can play a lead guard or and off-ball guard role and it has worked really well for OKC thus far. PG Dennis Schroeder (19.0 PPG) is also a front-runner for 6th man of the year and gives OKC a great 3 guard punch. For trading away a player like Paul George, SGA and Danillo Gallinari (19.2 PPG) have made his loss less of a blow.
What worries me about the Thunder is their lack of depth beyond the top 6. Steven Adams is overpaid, but he still is a good rebounder and defender. Starting guys like Terrance Ferguson and undrafted rookie Lugentz Dort is kind of concerning. I don't think you can rely on the bench either. Nerlens Noel is fine for 15-20 minutes a game but other than that its pretty iffy. Rookie Darius Bazley, Abdel Nader, Hamidou Diallo, Mike Muscala, and Deonte Burton. Andre Roberson could possibly return for the playoffs, but he's coming off a 2-year break from basketball after a torn patella tendon. Roberson would be a guy you could throw on some of the better offensive wings in the West but was a black-hole on offense before all of his injury concerns.
The Thunder strike me as a top-heavy team. While they certainly have some blue-chip talent, the lack of depth seems like their likely downfall. 2020 is a year like no other however and it would be awesome to see Chris Paul get a title.
BEST CASE: TOUGH 7 GAME 2ND ROUND SERIES VS A TOP TEAM
MOST REALISTIC: EHH JUST A REGULAR 5-6 GAME SERIES
WORST CASE: LOSING TO UTAH (4th seed) IN THE 1ST ROUND
Dallas Mavericks (40-27, 7th in the West)
The Dallas Mavericks are the first team in this series who have not officially clinched a playoff spot. I would expect them to hang on to the 7th seed but it's up in the air. Luka Doncic is one of the best players in the league already - he's averaging damn near 30 PPG and damn near a triple-double. Luka can keep Dallas alive against a lot of teams. We don't traditionally see a lot of early-career playoff success unless a young superstar is surrounded by elite veterans. I think Dallas is a year off from being anything more than a dark horse.
Luka's best teammate is definitely Kristaps Porzingis. Like Luka, he lacks experience in the playoffs. I would think a young team like this without experience would be deeply affected by the time away. Porzingis is still trying to fit into this team. That being said I do like a lot of their role players. Maxi Kleber is a good stretch big, Delon Wright is an all-around talent off the bench, Seth Curry is turning in one of his best years, Dorian Finney-Smith provides 3 and D, and Tim Hardaway loves to shoot the ball. I still like Willie Cauley-Stein even though he hasn't really worked out, so he could also be an interesting piece.
The Mavs feel like a solid step down from the other teams in this tier. I couldn't justify putting them behind Indiana or Utah in the upcoming tier, however. Luka raises the ceiling of this team by quite a bit but it will be a tough road for Dallas.
BEST CASE: SHOCKING A HIGH SEEDED TEAM IN THE 1ST ROUND, LOSING IN THE 2ND
MOST REALISTIC: UNFORTUNATE 1ST ROUND EXIT
WORST CASE: POR, SA, NO, SAC OR THE GODDAMN SUNS TAKE THEIR PLAYOFF SPOT
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