NBA BUBBLE PREDICTIONS PART 1
by CONNOR KIRST
We are officially 10 days away from the restart of the NBA season. While it might not be a completely normal schedule, it is definitely good to have some form of basketball back. In this series, I am going to be breaking down these 22 teams in tiers. The first 3 teams we will tackle are the title or bust teams: the Milwaukee Bucks, Los Angeles Lakers, and the Los Angeles Clippers.
If you would like to check out the rest of the series take a look here:
Part 2: Fringe Title Contenders
Milwaukee Bucks (53-12, 1st in Eastern Conference)
The Milwaukee Bucks were putting together an excellent season before COVID-19 forced the NBA to suspend operations. Giannis Antetokounmpo was having an MVP caliber year and put up career-highs in points (29.6 PPG), rebounds (13.7 RPG), and falling just short of his career-high in assists (5.8 APG). Those numbers are already ridiculously impressive and he's doing by averaging just 30.9 minutes per game. You don't need analytics to tell you that Giannis is playing out of his mind this year but analytics also rule in his favor. Giannis is second only to James Harden in win shares (an estimated amount of wins contributed by a player) with 10.4.
Beyond Giannis, the rest of the team is still very solid. Swingman Khris Middleton is also having a career year averaging 21.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG and 4.1 APG in just over 30 MPG. Giannis and Middleton form a nice complementary duo. Middleton is a deadeye shooter (41.8% from 3), and provides solid defense on the perimeter. Eric Bledsoe has been only decent this season but provides a tough, athletic PG who should serve them well in the playoffs. C Brook Lopez has taken a slight step back on offense this season (his 3pt shooting fell from 36.5% to 29.7% this year), but has developed into an elite rim-protector since joining the Bucks. Lopez is extremely valuable as he takes a lot of pressure off of Giannis defensively and, when his shot is on, provides good floor spacing for the Bucks. Wes Matthews and George Hill are solid veterans with much-needed playoff experience. Donte "The Big Ragu" DiVencenzo has greatly improved in his 2nd season and can give them youthful energy off the bench or as a spot starter.
The Bucks are an extremely well-coached team with Mike Budenholzer leading the charge. Since Budenholzer took over, the Bucks have quite simply been a top-tier team in the NBA. It hasn't fully translated into playoff success just yet. The biggest question mark with the Bucks in the playoffs will continue to be Giannis Antetokounmpo. He is arguably the best player in the NBA currently, but he is not a perfect player. Giannis is by no means a knockdown shooter from 3 or even mid-range. He is just good enough for defenses to respect him, but when the game slows down in the playoffs Giannis isn't quite as good in the half-court. However, this has not been a problem for the Bucks this season. They have dominated pretty much everyone. As long as Giannis can control the boards and the pace of the game, the Bucks remain the heavy favorite from the Eastern Conference.
I can easily see the Bucks getting to the Finals. Teams will find it difficult to completely neutralize Giannis, but if teams are able to keep Middleton from doing much damage, I'm just not completely sold on the rest of the supporting cast to step up. Losing Malcolm Brogdon to Indiana will really hurt this team come playoff time. If the Bucks played in the Western Conference and had more tests against some of the tougher teams I would probably feel differently, I'm just not sure if this will be Milwaukee's year.
BEST CASE: NBA CHAMPIONS
MOST REALISTIC: EASTERN CONFERENCE CHAMPS
WORST CASE: LOSING TO PHILLY OR BOSTON
Los Angeles Lakers (49-14, 1st in the Western Conference)
The 2018-19 season was one of the most embarrassing years in Lakers history. Not only was the product underachieving on the court, but front office turmoil also made the year one to forget. This offseason the Lakers traded away young pieces such as Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram for Anthony Davis, and boy did it pay off. AD joining LeBron James has so far seemed like a match made in heaven. LeBron looked human last season and only ended up playing 55 games. This season he has bounced back very well and is currently leading the NBA in assists with 10.6 per game. As long as LeBron can play the way he was before, the Lakers will be a title contender.
For a team like the Lakers, a 4-month break doesn't seem like a bad thing. A lot of the team comprises of veterans over the age of 30 with a lot of playoff experience: LeBron, Danny Green, and Dwight Howard. Those players should benefit from this break. Avery Bradley was one of the more high profile players deciding to sit out in Orlando, and Rajon Rondo is also out due to injury. Both players would have been very useful.
The Lakers seemed to be really clicking just before COVID-19, so hopefully, this will not derail their momentum. Howard in particular is enjoying a very good season as a role player. The numbers aren't gaudy, but Dwight has fully embraced his rim-running, catching lobs, and rim protection ways that made him a great player in Orlando. He isn't the same physically as he once was, but he is thriving in what looks to be a nice 2nd chapter in his career.
As well as the Lakers have played this season, there are a few concerns in regards to their future in the playoffs. LeBron has arguably taken on more of a playmaking role than he has ever had in his career., Losing Rondo hurts in this regard even if he isn't much of a threat as a shooter or attacking the basket. Almost every LeBron led team has tried to surround him with strong 3pt shooters and the Lakers have done the same. Danny Green and surprisingly Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have answered the call in this regard. It remains to be seen if this will be enough to bring home a title in LA.
I would say with extreme confidence that the Larry O'Brien trophy will come to Los Angeles after the playoffs. Whether it's with the Lakers or the Clippers, I'm not nearly as confident. Any team shutting down LeBron and AD is hard to imagine but I wouldn't be completely shocked.
BEST CASE: CHAMPS
MOST REALISTIC: WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS TOSSUP
WORST CASE: AN EARLY EXIT FROM A YOUNGER, DEEPER TEAM
Los Angeles Clippers (44-20, 2nd in the West)
The Clippers really had one of the biggest offseasons I can remember. Landing Kawhi Leonard and Paul George still seems insane to me. Even with those 2 players, it kind of feels like this team has been coasting all season. The Clippers are undoubtedly some of the worst offenders of load-management. It is a smart strategy to keep their players fresh for the playoffs, but we don't know if it will cost in cohesiveness as a unit. On paper, they have 3 elite defensive players with Leonard, George, and agitator Patrick Beverly. Those 3 can shut down pretty much anyone on the perimeter. They are missing an elite rim protector, but Montrezl Harrell does a solid job on that end too. Harrell pairs with veteran Lou Williams to give the Clippers one of the best pick and roll attacks in the NBA off the bench. The Clippers are my personal pick to win the Finals this year.
Why the Clippers? Kawhi Leonard has been the most devastating player in the playoffs at least twice (2013-14 defensively, 2018-19 as a 2-way player), and now he is playing with another top 15 player in Paul George. Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobli, and Tony Parker were great players, even still you'd be hard-pressed to argue that they were elite players in their prime when the Spurs beat LeBron and the Heat.
Both the San Antonio Spurs and the Toronto Raptors had talent, amazing coaching, and a great system around Kawhi Leonard.
My only concern is that I'm not sure if the Clippers have that this season. Doc Rivers is a good coach. Gregg Popovich is my pick for the GOAT coach, and Nick Nurse looks like he's on the track for a lot of success. Rivers has gotten a lot out of his teams over the years but never sustained postseason success in terms of multiple championships. If the Clippers play up to their potential and work together well as a team, I don't know who can stop them. I cannot wait to see what happens with this team. I would be shocked if they didn't make at least a little noise in the playoffs here.
BEST CASE: CHAMPS
MOST REALISTIC: WESTERN CONFERENCE CHAMPS
WORST CASE: LOSE TO THE LAKERS OR A MORE COHESIVE TEAM
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