The Long Shot Playoff Teams
Utah Jazz (41-23, 4th in the West)
The 2019-20 season will likely not be remembered for basketball reasons. While they are a very solid team, C Rudy Gobert was the 1st known professional athlete to be diagnosed with COVID-19 resulting in the suspension of the NBA season. It's an unfortunate situation but the Jazz do have some things to be optimistic about. Gobert is still an elite defensive player who can alter and block pretty much any shot near him. Donavan Mitchell is also a feisty young 2-way guard. Mitchell has kind of developed a reputation as a gunner and shot miserably in last year's playoffs (32.1% from the field, 25.6% from 3pt), also coming at a high volume. The Jazz added veteran PG Mike Conley in the offseason to alleviate pressure off of Mitchell, but Conley is turning by far one of his worst seasons since his early Memphis days. The addition of F Bojan Bogdanovic has fared better with the veteran averaging 20.2 PPG on 41% 3pt shooting. The Jazz also swung a trade for combo guard Jordan Clarkson who has turned around his career since joining the team.
I am still concerned that Utah has not done enough to truly compete in the Western Conference. I like Donavan Mitchell a lot, but I feel like he's the only guy that would really scare teams on offense. The Jazz have a bunch of solid players, but in the playoffs having a true superstar can mean life or death.
I also feel like the depth for this team is lacking. F Joe Ingles has expressed concern about rejoining the league this season and perhaps even walking away from basketball. Ingles leads the team in assists with 5.2 APG and provides good defense and spacing. Beyond Ingles, wing depth looks to be Royce O'Neale and Jeff Green. O'Neale is a fine role player but is another guy that I wouldn't want to count on in a big role.
The Jazz were banking on Conley and Bogdanovic to take them over the top. Unfortunately for them, other teams in the West made much bigger moves. Utah may just go down being lost in the shuffle.
BEST CASE: 2ND ROUND APPEARANCE
WORST CASE: 1ST ROUND LOSS TO OKC
Indiana Pacers (39-26, 5th in the East)
Indiana surprised a lot of people this season. Star G Victor Oladipo has missed the majority of the past 2 years, and most would have seen the Pacers closer to the playoff fringe. Instead, players like Domantas Sabonis and TJ Warren have carried this team right in the middle of the Eastern playoff pack. Sabonis is one of the more skilled big men in the league and does pretty much everything well. Myles Turner and Sabonis have some overlapping skillsets but combine to be one of the stronger PF/C combos in the NBA. Turner is a great rim-protector, but the Pacers can't always play him with Sabonis due to spacing concerns. Warren flashed scoring potential in Phoenix but has blossomed into a much more efficient player on a winning team with the Pacers. G Malcolm Brogdon was a great offseason addition as well, bringing grittiness on defense, solid playmaking, and good shooting to either guard spot.
The role players for the Pacers are actually very solid too. Brothers Justin and Aaron Holiday provide good defense and shooting, Jeremy Lamb is solid all-around, Doug McDermott can occasionally catch fire and TJ McConnell is a reliable backup playmaker. If Victor Oladipo is back for the playoffs, this team is suddenly very deep.
Like Utah, it remains to be seen how much playoff success this team will have. I can't see them truly beating Milwaukee, Boston, Philly, Toronto or Miami. They will make it hard for any of those teams, but they are missing a true go-to guy.
BEST CASE: TAKING A 2ND ROUND SERIES TO 7 GAMES
WORST CASE: 1ST ROUND LOSS ALSO 6-7 GAMES VS CURRENT MATCHUP MIAMI
"A Year Away" Teams
Memphis Grizzlies (32-33, 8th in the West)
Memphis has been known in recent years to "grit n' grind" their way to the playoffs. However, we've seen them hit the reset button by parting ways with Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, Zach Randolph, and Tony Allen all within the last few seasons. This year the re-build seemed to be accelerated by the selection of PG Ja Morant. Morant is putting up 17.6 PPG, 6.9 APG on 49.1% shooting, and 36.7% from 3pt. Most importantly, Morant has given this team new life. Morant has really picked up the pace with this team, and other young players - particularly Jaren Jackson Jr., have greatly benefitted from Ja's arrival. Jackson is everything you look for in the modern-day NBA. He's a rim-protecting big man who can switch on pick and rolls, and is an elite shooter for his size (39.7% from 3pt). For some reason, Jackson struggles to rebound the basketball (4.7 RPG). Luckily, veteran C Jonas Valanciunas makes up for that, averaging 11.2 RPG in just 26.3 MPG.
The Grizzlies have one of the best young cores in the league. On top of Ja and Jaren, Brandon Clarke, Dillion Brooks, and Justise Winslow are players I'm very high on. I loved Clarke coming out of this draft because of his versatility on defense, but he's come along better than expected on offense averaging 12 PPG on 62/40 shooting splits. 40% from 3pt is a little misleading because he hasn't had a lot of attempts but his biggest knock coming out was concerns of floor spacing. In 21.7 MPG, I'm still impressed. Brooks has also continued to improve as a scorer and is a nice backcourt mate for Ja Morant. Winslow has yet to suit up for this team, but if you've read my writing before, you know I'm a big fan of his 2-way potential.
I think Grizzlies fans will be happy with this season however it turns out just because of the growth we've already seen. Making the playoffs would be a great experience, but I just can't see the Grizz competing with either LA team in the 1st round.
BEST CASE: MAKE THE PLAYOFFS
WORST CASE: FALL JUST SHORT
New Orleans Pelicans (28-36, 10th in the West)
New Orleans definitely has one of the brightest futures in the NBA with a young core of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and Lonzo Ball. Add in a couple solid veterans with Derrick Favors and JJ Redick, the Pelicans look like a solid playoff team. I haven't even mentioned Jrue Holiday yet. Holiday may be the most underrated player in the league right now. He's averaged right around 20 PPG and 7 APG in the last 2 seasons while providing elite defense, decent shooting, and a whole lot of grit.
On paper this should be one of the most interesting teams to watch, so why aren't they higher in my list? A lot of it has to do with the fact that a lot of these guys haven't played much together. The Grizzlies get the nod over the Pelicans in my eyes just because they have been a little bit healthier and have already exceeded expectations. Zion, Ingram, and Holiday will definitely make this team one to look out for though.
Zion would probably be the runaway Rookie of the Year, had he played more than 19 games. That's no disrespect to Ja Morant, but Zion has been really, really amazing this year. Brandon Ingram has also built up a strong case for Most Improved Player, but we'll need to see if both players can coexist after so much time apart. Still feel like the Pelicans are at least a year off from making any real noise.
BEST CASE: STEAL A GAME OR 2 AS THE 8TH SEED
WORST CASE: ON-COURT CHEMISTRY IS JUST OFF ENOUGH FOR THEM TO MISS THE PLAYOFFS
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