The Buffalo Bills shocked many people by breaking a 17 year playoff drought last season. While things may seem to be trending upward for the future, by the looks of it, the present could be extremely difficult.
OFFENSE:
QUARTERBACKS:QB1: Nathan Peterman QB2: Josh Allen
Oh boy. This is going to be a tough year for both Bills quarterbacks. Nate Peterman will get the first shot to start for the Bills, but the schedule early on is rough - particularly matchups against the Chargers and Vikings. Peterman is well known for throwing 5 interceptions in 1 half last year against the Chargers, and could very well do the same thing. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram should continue to terrorize the Bills offensive line and a ballhawking secondary led by Casey Heyward can strike at any poor decision Peterman will inevitably make. It's hard to imagine Peterman lasting very long as the starter. I don't necessarily think he will be quite the disaster he was last year, but he doesn't make anyone around him better and isn't really what you look for as a number 1 QB.
Ideally, Josh Allen should start at least half the season. While I don't think the Bills should throw him out there to the wolves if he's not ready, it seems like he is the best option at this point. If the Bills struggle early on, it will be Allen-time sooner rather than later. He's still super raw, but Allen can make every throw you could possibly dream of.
BEST CASE: Allen is the franchise QB the Bills have been looking for since Jim Kelly left and makes fans forget all about Tyrod Taylor.
WORST CASE: Peterman is awful, McDermott sticks with him, Allen can't crack the starting lineup.
POSITION GRADE: D+
RUNNING BACKS:RB1: LeSean McCoy RB2: Marcus MurphyShort yardage back: Chris Ivory
As the most solid positional group on the Bills offense, I am not super worried about the running backs. LeSean McCoy, while getting older, has been one of the most productive players in the NFL since entering the league. Marcus Murphy turned in an impressive camp/preseason and has surprisingly beat out Ivory as McCoy's second fiddle. Murphy, while undersized, is extremely elusive and versatile in the passing and return game. Ivory should still steal some looks near the goal-line, but Murphy seems poised for a bigger role.
Even with talent at RB, I am a little concerned with this group. McCoy has a lot of mileage and will eventually decline, Murphy has 8 career carries, and Ivory is 30 and hasn't been particularly productive since 2015.
BEST CASE: Shady does Shady things, Murphy is a strong change of pace and Ivory gets some touchdowns.
WORST CASE: Shady and Ivory look old, Murphy can't handle his new role.
POSITION GRADE: B+
WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS
WR1: Kelvin Benjamin WR2: Zay Jones WR3: Jeremy Kerley WR4: Andre HolmesWR5: Ray Ray McCloud TE1: Charles Clay
I am not excited in any way to watch this group play football this year. Benjamin is a name that can get some fans excited, but at the end of the day, he's not really a great number 1 option. KB really struggles to get any separation and doesn't always have the most consistent hands or effort. He's really big and can go up and get jump balls, but I have a strong suspicion that Kelvin Benjamin is a 1 trick pony. Zay Jones is talented but lacks consistency. I expect he'll improve at least a little bit this year, but he still needs a lot of work. Kerley is solid but lacks explosion at this point of his career. Andre Holmes is 6'4 and that's about it. McCloud is somewhat explosive, but has an uphill battle to make an impact.
Really the best pass catching option this year is Charles Clay. While he's injury prone, Clay is still a pretty talented player. Clay will be a safe option for either QB when the WR's fail to get open - which should be quite often this year unfortunately.
BEST CASE: Zay Jones takes a huge leap, Benjamin returns to his rookie form.
WORST CASE: The Bills leading receiver has 500 yards.
POSITION GRADE: D+
OFFENSIVE LINE:LT: Dion Dawkins LG: Vlad Ducasse C: Ryan Groy RG: John Miller RT: Jordan Mills
Thinking about the Bills offensive line gives me a migraine. This might actually be the worst line in the NFL this year. Dion Dawkins is the best of the bunch, but is still so inexperienced after being thrown into the fire as a rookie. I am shocked Ducasse is on an NFL roster, he's been awful at all of his NFL stops. Groy is a great backup G/C, but has never seen significant starting time. Miller couldn't beat out Ducasse last year, so that's a thing. Also watching Jordan Mills trying to block Joey Bosa last year was laughable.
BEST CASE: Next year maybe.
WORST CASE: Peterman, Allen and McCoy all end up on IR.
POSITION GRADE : D-
DEFENSE:
DEFENSIVE LINE:
MAIN EDGE RUSHERS: Jerry Hughes, Trent Murphy
ROTATIONAL EDGE RUSHERS: Shaq Lawson, Eddy Yarborough, Lorenzo Alexander
INTERIOR LINE: Kyle Williams, Star Lotulelei, Harrison Phillips, Adolphus Washington
The Bills have a decent defensive line. Jerry Hughes has been a good player for Buffalo for a while now, but hasn't been nearly as disruptive since becoming the main pass rusher the past few years. Murphy is a nice addition but is coming off an ACL tear and is already banged up this year. Lawson has to prove himself this year or he will be on a different team very soon.
On the interior, Kyle Williams is the anchor of the entire team, and the emotional leader. He still plays at a very high level despite being 35 years old. The Bills added Star Lotulelei and Harrison Phillips this offseason. Lotulelei is a powerful run stuffing tackle, but is immobile and doesn't project great as a passing down player. Phillips reminds a lot of people of Kyle Williams, and could eventually move into a starting role.
BEST CASE: At least 1 can disrupt the quarterback and create turnovers
WORST CASE: Kyle Williams slows down. Lotulelei is overpaid and a 1/2 down player, and no one can generate a pass rush.
POSITION GRADE: B-
LINEBACKERS:
OUTSIDE LB's: Lorenzo Alexander, Matt MilanoINSIDE LB: Tremaine Edmunds
The LB corps are the worst part about the Bills defense. Lorenzo Alexander was really productive his 1st year with the Bills but was pretty quiet last year. He has a lot of versatility, but I'm not sure if he's really the best fit with this team at this point. Milano flashed some potential last year, but he'll need to step way up now that he has a full time role. I see Milano seeing more time in subpackages this year than Alexander, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a 3rd safety out there either.
I'm actually super excited to see what Tremaine Edmunds can do. With his combination of size, speed and youth, the sky is the limit. Edmunds will have a lot to learn to become a great linebacker, but he will make some amazing plays this season.
BEST CASE: Milano steps up, Alexander defies old age and Edmunds is a beast.
WORST CASE: All 3 starters struggle, Edmunds is in over his head.
POSITION GRADE: C+
SECONDARY:
CORNERS: Tre'Davious White, Vontae Davis, Taron Johnson, Phillip Gaines, Lafayette Pitts, Ryan Lewis
SAFETIES: Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Siran Neal, Rafael Bush
Finally, a positional group I can get excited about...Tre White, Poyer and Hyde formed one of the best secondaries in the NFL last year. Beyond the "big 3" I am slightly concerned. Vontae Davis has been a productive player for a long time, but injuries have taken their toll on his play. Taron Johnson will have the difficult task of playing slot corner in his rookie season, and that could be tough for a 4th round player. If anyone in this group misses significant time, it could really be a disaster. Luckily, White, Poyer and Hyde are All-Pro level players.
BEST CASE: The secondary proves that the ballhawking last year was no fluke.
WORST CASE: Injuries and lack of pass rush put too much pressure on the secondary leading to regression.
POSITION GRADE: A-
SCHEDULE PREDICTIONS
@BAL (W)
vsLAC (L)
@MIN (L)
@GB (L)
vsTEN (W) - Allen starts here?
@HOU (L)
@IND (W)
vsNE (L)
vsCHI (L)
@NYJ (L)
BYE
vsJAX (L)
@MIA (W) - This would have to be Josh Allen, right?
vsNYJ (W)
vsDET (L)
@NE (L)
vsMIA (W)
6-10
I am usually way too optimistic about the Buffalo Bills. This year I really don't feel that way. I don't think they'll be the worst team in the league, but unless Josh Allen sets the league on fire, I just don't see the path to the playoffs this year. I have too many questions about the offensive line and weapons that the QBs have to work with. This season has the potential for the Bills to have a bottom 5 offense, even though I think Brian Daboll is a huge upgrade over Rick Dennison. I think Sean McDermott can coach a great defense and will get the Bills to play hard week in week out, but there are too many holes right now to really contend for another playoff spot. Hopefully the Buffalo Bills prove me wrong.
Comments
Post a Comment